Wailuku, Hawaii 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

845
FXHW60 PHFO 270849 CCA
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1049 PM HST Thu Jun 26 2025

.UPDATE...
Updated forecast to issue Small Craft Advisory for typical windy
waters around Maui County and the Big Island.

.SYNOPSIS...

The forecast will trend drier for the rest of this week as ridging
builds into the region. Occasional pockets of moisture embedded
within the trades will continue to produce mainly windward and
mauka showers for the next several days. Trade wind speeds could
decrease even further early next week as an overall drier trade
wind pattern continues.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

This afternoon, surface high pressure centered far northeast of
the main Hawaiian Islands continues to drive locally breezy
easterly trade winds across the state. Ridging in the wake of an
exiting weak disturbance aloft is resulting in drier conditions
today than those experienced the past couple of days, though a
weak upper jet is steering a thin layer of cirrus across the
eastern half of the state. Afternoon satellite and radar imagery
shows very few showers across the state, and rain gauge networks
show that most locations have received very little or no rainfall
since this morning. Observed 00z soundings at Hilo and Lihue show
strong inversions between roughly 6,500 and 7,500 feet, with ample
dry air aloft. Low cloud cover is also confined mostly to the
typical windward and mauka sections of the islands. This is in
addition to the afternoon sea-breeze induced increase in cloud
and shower coverage over the Kona slopes of the Big Island.

Global forecast models remain in good agreement that the
surface high far northeast of the state will remain nearly
stationary through Saturday as it experiences minor fluctuations
in intensity. This will result in moderate to breezy trade winds
continuing across the main Hawaiian Islands into the weekend. The
overall drier trend will continue as well, though pockets of low-
level moisture trapped beneath the inversion will result in
occasional windward and mauka showers, particularly during the
overnight through early morning hours each day.

During the second half of the weekend and into early next week,
the surface high to our far northeast will weaken further and
move closer to the continental U.S. as a front makes its way
across the North Pacific and a new high develops far north-
northwest of the state. As this occurs, trades will likely weaken
a bit more and veer to become more east-southeasterly through
mid-week. Showers are expected to be fairly limited throughout
this time, mainly favoring windward and mauka areas during the
overnight through early morning hours each day. Guidance remains
consistent that the second half of next week could be even drier
as a new surface high becomes established to our northeast.

&&

.AVIATION...

Beneath a transparent shield of cirrus and patchy mid-level
clouds, VFR prevails as breezy trades persist at the surface.
Little in the way of upstream moisture suggests MVFR remains
patchy in nature and confined to windward and mauka areas, mainly
overnight.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for low-level lee turb.


&&

.MARINE...

Moderate to locally strong trade winds are expected for the next
couple of days. Thursday afternoon ASCAT showed 25 knot winds in
the Alenuihaha Channel which meets Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
thresholds. Local high resolution model guidance is also in
agreement with keeping SCA conditions for the next couple of days
thus a SCA has been issued for the typical windier waters and
channels around Maui and the Big Island through at least 6AM
Saturday night. A disturbance passing well north of the area late
this weekend into early next week may slightly weaken the trades.

The current south swell will continue to gradually fade to
background levels through the weekend. Models show another small,
long period south swell arriving Sunday into early next week that
should boost south shore surf up to near average surf.

Surf along east shores will remain rough and choppy for the next
several days. Surf along north facing shores will remain tiny
through the period.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Vaughan
AVIATION...JVC
MARINE...Walsh